Friday, February 10, 2012

Maine Caucuses, Santorum, God, Horse Races

Maine caucuses tomorrow, with 24 delegates up for grabs. No polling data is available, but Newt Gingrich probably will not do well up in Yankee country. He increasingly does poorly everywhere. He looks tired. This race is putting the old horse off his feed.

Expect a close 3-way race, as follows:

1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Santorum

Any order of finish for those three would not surprise.

..........

We have been asked to extend the racing metaphor of these writings to expound on what sort of horse each of the candidates reminds us of:

Ron Paul: The Old Nag.
Rick Santorum: The Plump Filly.
Newt Gingrich: The Old Warhorse (though he got deferments in time of actual war; we are certain no one is surprised).
Mitt Romney: The Gelded Stallion.

And Barack Obama: A Thoroughbred just hitting his stride.

..........

After Maine we get a bit of a break with no further voting until the end of the month. The next debate is Feb. 22 – Mr. Santorum will be standing in the center of the stage next to Mitt Romney, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul as outliers. It will be interesting to see if Mr. Santorum brings to the debate some of the intensity he has been showing around the country as he preaches to evangelicals. The call-and-response, fire-and-brimstone nature we have seen in some of his current oratory has been remarkably potent. He is breaking out of the pack, and as the economy improves and the arguments on the right devolve to their standard playbook – God, more God, and damn the Godless among us, by God – Mr. Santorum stands comfortably on familiar ground. He has played the God card his entire political life. God help us.

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